September 10, 2006

The day after

I'll have more to say tomorrow, but a few points and a link for today.

The Greens shouldn't get too ecstatic about the strength of their vote. Labor strategists I spoke to last night agreed with my proposition that the Green vote was in large part a protest vote against the Coalition as well as Labor. This is borne out by the results from seats like Sandgate where Family First ran as well. The Opposition were so dreadful that many swinging and conservative voters tired of Beattie voted Green in despair.

What wasn't noticed last night too much was that the Nats almost lost two regional seats to Labor - Burdekin and Lockyer. Out of the seats lost to One Nation in 1998, Labor has subsequently won back 5 of the 6 it lost, but the Nats only have taken 1 back of their 5. The former One Nation vote was swinging to Labor in these two seats, and the Nats vote went backward in a lot of seats they held - intriguingly in Cunningham and Toowoomba South. The other story was the big swings to Labor in the north - particularly in and around Cairns and Townsville. The Nats shouldn't take too much comfort from the Libs' disaster - their performance was disastrous as well - and they could easily have gone backwards. Their electoral position in seats they must win is now worse going into the next poll.

Demographic changes are the big untold story in the result - I'll have more to say about this later in the week - but the Gold Coast now looks really nice for Labor (a big contrast to the position only a decade and a half ago where the best the ALP could do was switch the odd Nats seat into the Libs column with preferences). Absent the local factors working against the ALP on the Sunshine Coast, the demographics are moving in Labor's direction there as well, and a recovery should be possible next time.

The Poll Bludger has a regional breakdown.

On the rush by the Tories to claim that WorkChoices wasn't an issue, don't believe a word of it.

Cross posted at Larvatus Prodeo.

Posted by Mark_Bahnisch at September 10, 2006 03:15 PM
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