September 09, 2006
Seats to watch
This list is distilled from what the parties are telling us, or others, are the seats that are in play. Mark may have some additions, and we'd also be interested in comments from others:
Some comments on these possibles. The inclusion of Aspley and Clayfield reflects an assessment by the parties that Labor is travelling worse on the north-side of Brisbane than elsewhere. Indooroopilly, which ought to be safe Liberal is conceded as likely to stay with Labor. Seats like Mansfield and Springwood are also apparently safe for Labor.
The two seats won in by-elections by the Libs - Redcliffe and Chatsworth - are on the line. History suggests that the Liberals will be lucky to hang on to Chatsworth because it has always been a strong Labor seat, but might have some prospects of hanging-on in Redcliffe which has been represented by both Nationals and Liberals. Gaven should also probably be on this list.
The Liberals are also supposed to be doing better on the Sunshine Coast than elsewhere, giving them a chance in Kawana and Noosa. Noosa is almost a certainty because of the failure of Labor, Greens and Independent Cate Molloy to swap preferences. This means that the Liberal candidate, Glen Elmes is in with a good chance if he polls one-third of the vote or better.
Liberal gains on the Gold Coast seem unlikely, with the possible exception of Mudgeeraba where Ros Bates has worked hard. One seat to watch will be Robina, the seat of retiring former member, Bob Quinn. The Liberals have a high profile candidate, but could still lose it.
Things also appear to be travelling OK for the Liberals in North Queensland where Steve Welsh is tipped to have prospects on his second attempt at this seat. Cairns would seem less likely, but with the huge demographic changes up there, anything is possible.
A couple of National Party seats are rumoured to be at play, including Hinchinbrook where sitting member Marc Rowell is retiring. However, the Nationals also expect to pick up some seats and rate themselves as chances in Hervey Bay, Keppel and Mulgrave. They also think they might do OK in Toowoomba North (also not on the list above).
Whitsunday appears to be a long shot, but anything could happen in a seat which is essentially four radically different areas ranging from the northern suburbs of Mackay, through cane fields to Airlie Beach and finally to Bowen. Labor incumbent Jan Jarratt has a great website (well, I would say that, wouldn't I?).
I've put Pumicestone in because the Liberal candidate Shane Moon is a hard-working guy with a theoretically small margin to over-come who has been doing some effective advertising.
Incumbency seems to count for a lot this election, which is why Capalaba is on the list as well.Posted by Graham at September 9, 2006 02:04 PM