September 06, 2006

Queensland election third week

These are the notes used for our on-air discussion with Madonna King on ABC Brisbane's Morning Program.

  1. Sample very similar to all the other samples that we have been taking in terms of age and gender.
  2. Total of 389.
  3. There appears to be a mild swing back to the Coalition, but very close to the margin of error.
  4. Dems have decreased (they aren’t running), Family First has increased (they are), Greens are stagnant, Independents down 4% in a week, Labor continuing to climb, but the Liberals appear to have bounced. Nationals are stagnant. (Table below).
  5. Two-party preferred 58% to 42%.
  6. Regionally the ALP is strongest in Brisbane – 39% - and the Liberals strongest on the Gold Coast – 25%. Nationals are strongest in Ipswich.
  7. Labor is strongest with males under 30 – 71%; Liberals strongest with men over 60 – 35%; Nationals most popular with men under 30 – 21%
  8. Liberals weak with women 30-50. Labor also weak with women 30-40. Nationals weakest with men 31-40.
  9. Voters are mostly thinking strategically rather than about the issues. Top factor influencing voters is Labor performance negatives, of which a significant one is Peter Beattie with 13% citing it. Also on 13%, but marginally lower is Coalition performance negatives – generally to do with Coalition unity, bad memories of the former National Party government, or problems with Springborg and Flegg. But 6% cite Labor performance as a positive, while only 1% do this for the Coalition.
  10. 8% of voters will go for balance – protest vote – while 7% are motivated by concerns about IR. 5% will vote for neither. The rest split mostly on issues, although 3% cite the candidate as a reason for their voting intention.
  11. Out of a sub-group of 48 swingers, none saw positives for the Coalition, but one in five was concerned about negative performance of Labor, and one in six about negative performance of the Coalition
  12. In the focus group the message that we need a stronger opposition not a larger government majority tested well. Downside that voters were not sure that the coalition was capable of being a good opposition.
  13. Take-out message. Labor still on track for a large margin, although pulling back to the pack a little. Without the Opposition doing an effective pitch for voters who want stronger opposition, not bigger government majorities, likely that there will be some surprise swings in seats because of the candidate pushing the right buttons, but no overall change likely. Some Greens candidates will also do well, without changing who becomes the government.

Verbatims

 

“While the Government is incompetent and incapable of making decsions except on the basis of public opinion, the coalition is a basket case - an unelectable group of redneck career politician Nationals living in the 1950's and with policy that reflects it, and wimpish Liberals who are not preparred tot stand up for what they believe in.  Beatty doesn't deserve another term, the alternative would be a disaster, and there is no viable third alternative.” Male, 41-50, Liberal going Labor, 4074

 

“Not voting for the idiots who have caused Qld to be in the current mess nor vote for the idiots who seem unable to mount a decent opposition.” Male, 41-50, Democrat going Democrat, 4074

 

“I see no real alternative to the Labor Party even though I am really dissillusioned re the health system, water supply, education system et al. I will however be voting for my incumbent MP Karen Struthers because she does accomplish a great deal in her electorate.” Female, 41-50, Labor going Greens, 4110

 

“In my humble opinion neither the Coalition nor Labour deserve to govern. If Queenslanders used hindsight it would show that when ever there is a large majority, either left or right in power, that power is abused. I will be lodging a protest vote this Saturday, and pray that others will do the same and in doing so show both the Labour and Coalition Party Leaders that they need to lift their game before I consider them fit to govern.” Male, 51-60, Uncommitted going Democrats, 4220

 

“I think I've been very consistant since before the by-elections, when the libs picked a couple of seats, that Beattie had to go and I am still very much of that opinion, I don't believe that Springborg & co could be that bad and do to much damage in 3 years, even if they just give the cage a rattle so the numbers were a bit more even. Ithink if things go as they would appear at this stage, the Libs should be looking for a seat for Can Do Cambell I think he has said a few times he has no interest but I think he could take it right up to old Pete” Male, 51-60, Labor going Liberal, 4163

 

“Peter Beattie has had more than enough time.  These problems are serious.  You may think the Coalition is not ready to Govern, but 'Blind Freddie' could do a better job than this lot! I can't believe that people will still swallow his'spin'” Female, 61+, Liberal going Liberal, 4218.

For the document containing the tables, click here.

Posted by Graham at September 6, 2006 11:06 AM
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