February 05, 2004

You said it first week

Campaign

Alex summed the state of the campaign “The parties seem to be talking past each other.” While there was some support for a positive campaign Joan thought that “Springborg hasn't got the gloves on yet or sure he's in the right ring”. And almost everyone thought Labor was going to win.

Protest Vote

It’s there to some extent, but it’s going Green. Mary (normally Liberal) “No my mind is open - but the Opposition parties are not showing any strength or govt capability”.

To Beattie saying he might lose:

Mary (Lib) “No doubt he'll say sorry for misleading everyone. On all TV channels. All media outlets” She thinks he’ll win.

Springborg says he will win:

Joan (ALP to Grn) “Veeerrry uneasy. I feel we are still getting over the damage Borbidge did.” Mary (Lib) “Sorry, it makes me think he's trying too hard and has left reality behind”.

View that Greens will do well and that PHON is finished. Pauline has done them no favours:

Alex (Lab) "Without Pauline they are the deadest of ducks."

Beattie

Peter (Lab to Lib) “He has been good for Queensland. Let down by a sorry Team”
Mary (Lib) “Reminds me of watching reality TV. Qld could has so much going for it could be run by prov. drover's dog. Unimpressed.”
Geraldine (Labor to Grn) “Labor in Qld has become Beattie I no longer have any sense of what Qld Labor is about.”
Peter (Lab to Lib) “Like Nero! Rushing to say he will put out the fire he lit!”

Springborg

Marilyn (Lib to Grn) “Trying a bit too hard, I've seen him in the street on the way home from QUT and he always looks cross.”
Skenes (Ind) “Nice bloke, trying hard. Hopefully will provide a decent Opposion Leader, firstly.”
Mary (Lib to Lab) “He needs to recognise that Govt isn't a job but a vocation and impress the electorate so.”

Issues


  • Health
  • Mary (Lib to Lab) knew most “Both are tryuing to address waiting list issues and the Emergency bed issues - one is broad basing and the other is so far localising and relatring to federal limitations and shrinking funding”

    Possible weakness for Beattie - why hasn’t he fixed the problems?


  • Tree clearing
  • Marilyn (Lib to Grn) “Been there done that! Haven't seen any concrete benefits yet and a total ban is as bad a balck and white solution to anything else - the environent is grey greeen, not black or white”

    Springborg’s remark that it was a “'grubby' grab for Greens preferences by Labor” bit. Widespread agreement.

    Hesitations

  • Beattie
  • Marilyn (Lib to Grn) “His treating me like an idiot” responsibility accountability”

  • Springborg
  • Mary “His overarching knowledge of the issues - the differences between the colatition parties - the lack of insight and iinnovation so far in their approach”

    Slogans

    Restore the balance generally acceptable. “Realistic” “A stronger Opposition would be a good thing” (ALP voter)

    Keep Queensland moving – niggling doubts about direction. Wishy Washy (Lab)

    Arguments

    All respondents tended to believe that Beattie doesn’t need to be returned because he has a job to finish, but they see Springborg’s new coalition as just hype.

    Summary

    Beattie wins, but by default.

    Posted by Graham at February 5, 2004 10:15 PM
    Comments

    Moose, While you might find a few party hacks and union officials amongst labor members, I suspect that there are lots of lawyer (like Beattie himself, teachers, business operators, etc, etc. I dread a society run by doctors, lawyers and stockbrokers. The sort of affected intellectual superiority implied by your post is quite insulting to the vast majorty of ordinary citizens.

    Posted by: Alex McConnell at February 7, 2004 12:49 PM

    I just wish Labor would lost some seats but it looks like they will actually pick some up, what is wrong with Queenslanders?, why do we want loser Labor MPs? that are either Labor Party Hacks or Union Drop Kicks?, I admit Beattie is okay but the rest of his MP's are morons...Terry M was a boiler maker for God sake, the Libs have Doctors and Lawyers and Stockbrokers. I am glad I live in Moggill. God help us.

    Posted by: Moose at February 6, 2004 04:21 PM

    Some comments on analyses of the election so far:
    1. Preferences: there are sound reasons why I expect One Nation/right-wing independent preferences to exhaust or drift to Labor more than would be the case with the Greens. One Nation/right-wing independent voters are to the right of the major parties on social issues but are to the left of the Coalition on economic issues. Springborg, unlike Joh or Howard, isn't pushing populist conservative themes that would rally the disaffected right, thus some One Nation/right-wing independent preferences will drift to Labor. Also One Nation/right-wing independent voters tend to be particularly alienated from the political system, which in part reflects their lower level of education, not allocating preferences is an expression of this alienation. Green voters are to the left of the major parties on economic and social issues, with the Democrats defunct however, Labor is the closest party to the Greens. Also Green voters are highly educated and likely to feel politically effective. They are thus more likely to allocate preferences and Labor is the rational choice for them.
    2. It is misleading to classify all non-Labor/Green voters as 'conservative' and assume that they will naturally return to the Nationals. In the 2003 NSW election the decline of One Nation and/or the withdrawal of Liberal candidates did not benefit the Nationals in Murray-Darling, Clarence or Monaro. The modified electoral pendulums that assume some block movement of One Nation votes back to the Nationals are a dubious exercise, and the scale of population growth in some areas makes this even more the case.
    3. One Nation's 2001 Queensland electoral performance was quite impressive given the party's self-destruction. The DLP polled better in elections than opinion polls suggested because it was a party that generated strong emotions of hostility or support. I suspect One Nation will outperform the polls.
    4. In 1977 Labor gained a swing of 7% after its 1974 wipeout this should be the Coalition benchmark. The 1977 swing was highly irregular and revealed in 1974 some areas, Toowoomba for example, had realigned permanently against Labor. I suspect that 1998-2001 permanently realigned Brisbane against the Liberals.
    5. The 2003 NSW election suggested that in urban electorates local MPs of a governing party with a popular premier are able to present themselves as local images of the Premier. If the polls are correct there will be a +15% gap in Labor support between Moggill and Indropilly, the difference in social composition between these electorates cannot account for this, anymore than for the similar gap between Miranda and Cronulla in NSW. This is a change from the landslides of the past such as Wran in 1978 and 1981.

    Posted by: Geoff Robinson at February 6, 2004 10:45 AM
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